Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Johnny Walker
42%
58%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
82"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
22-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-10
L3
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Santos: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Walker: 48 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Santos
Johnny Walker
34
Sig strikes landed
42
46
Sig strikes attempted
90
44
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
79s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 13-8
Last 5
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W1
Johnny Walker
23-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—