Back to UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Prelims1 Welterweight

Impa Kasanganay vs Carlston Harris

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Impa Kasanganay
Carlston Harris
57% 43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
28
Age
Δ 7y
34
10-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kasanganay: 6 sig / 0 TD · Harris: 24 sig / 0 TD
Impa Kasanganay
Carlston Harris
23
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
73
34
Total strikes landed
44
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
56s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
47%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Impa Kasanganay

"Tshilobo"
10-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
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L UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
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Blue corner
W1

Carlston Harris

"Mocambique"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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