Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gustavo Lopez
Alatengheili
51%
49%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
12-7-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-11-2
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lopez: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Alatengheili: 36 sig / 0 TD
Gustavo Lopez
Alatengheili
32
Sig strikes landed
37
80
Sig strikes attempted
88
46
Total strikes landed
61
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gustavo Lopez
12-7-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
17-11-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—