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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Erin Blanchfield vs Sarah Alpar

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Erin Blanchfield
Sarah Alpar
84% 16%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
63"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Blanchfield: 120 sig / 3 TD · Alpar: 41 sig / 0 TD
Erin Blanchfield
Sarah Alpar
41
Sig strikes landed
22
65
Sig strikes attempted
47
75
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.3
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
-0.10
157s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Erin Blanchfield

"Cold Blooded"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
L1

Sarah Alpar

"Too Sweet"
9-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
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