Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rongzhu
Brandon Jenkins
91%
9%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rongzhu: 86 sig / 6 TD ·
Jenkins: 41 sig / 0 TD
Rongzhu
Brandon Jenkins
41
Sig strikes landed
35
94
Sig strikes attempted
85
61
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rongzhu
28-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
Brandon Jenkins
"The Human Highlight Reel"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30