Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Lukasz Brzeski
Dylan Potter
48%
52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
29
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brzeski: 80 sig / 2 TD ·
Potter: 43 sig / 0 TD
Lukasz Brzeski
Dylan Potter
33
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lukasz Brzeski
"The Bull"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Dylan Potter
"Big Poppa"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
27