Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Albert Duraev
Caio Bittencourt
65%
35%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
33
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Duraev: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Bittencourt: 1 sig / 0 TD
Albert Duraev
Caio Bittencourt
40
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
77
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Albert Duraev
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Caio Bittencourt
"Leao"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30