Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Morono
David Zawada
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
31
Age
31
25-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morono: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Zawada: 86 sig / 1 TD
Alex Morono
David Zawada
67
Sig strikes landed
54
144
Sig strikes attempted
128
81
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
82s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
L1
David Zawada
"Sagat"
17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—