Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Serghei Spivac
55%
45%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
28
Age
Δ 2y
27
16-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-6
W3
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aspinall: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 0 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Serghei Spivac
22
Sig strikes landed
19
46
Sig strikes attempted
36
33
Total strikes landed
34
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—