Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Darren Till
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
24-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-6-1
W4
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brunson: 41 sig / 3 TD ·
Till: 26 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Darren Till
35
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
L1
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—