Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bryan Battle
Gilbert Urbina
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Battle: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Urbina: 45 sig / 2 TD
Bryan Battle
Gilbert Urbina
37
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
73
55
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bryan Battle
"The Butcher"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Gilbert Urbina
"The RGV Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25