Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ricky Turcios
Brady Hiestand
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 6y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Turcios: 100 sig / 2 TD ·
Hiestand: 66 sig / 6 TD
Ricky Turcios
Brady Hiestand
36
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
76
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricky Turcios
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Brady Hiestand
"Bam Bam"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22