Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Sousa
Chidi Njokuani
68%
32%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Sousa: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Njokuani: 65 sig / 0 TD
Mario Sousa
Chidi Njokuani
47
Sig strikes landed
32
84
Sig strikes attempted
81
64
Total strikes landed
44
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mario Sousa
"Coracao Valente"
16-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 4.9
—
Blue corner
Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33