Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joanderson Brito
Diego Lopes
45%
55%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brito: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Lopes: 20 sig / 0 TD
Joanderson Brito
Diego Lopes
35
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Diego Lopes
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27