Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matheus Scheffel
Azamat Murzakanov
45%
55%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
29
Age
Δ 4y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Scheffel: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Murzakanov: 9 sig / 0 TD
Matheus Scheffel
Azamat Murzakanov
34
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
64
49
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
74s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matheus Scheffel
"Buffa"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Azamat Murzakanov
"The Professional"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32