Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Victor Altamirano
Carlos Candelario
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Altamirano: 100 sig / 4 TD ·
Candelario: 73 sig / 5 TD
Victor Altamirano
Carlos Candelario
44
Sig strikes landed
46
109
Sig strikes attempted
97
60
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
168s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Victor Altamirano
"El Magnifico"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Candelario
"The Cannon"
9-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 1.4
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