Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Leonardo Damiani
AJ Fletcher
48%
52%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
31
Age
Δ 6y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Damiani: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Fletcher: 10 sig / 1 TD
Leonardo Damiani
AJ Fletcher
36
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Leonardo Damiani
"Puppy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
AJ Fletcher
"The Ghost"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
25