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Prelims1 Lightweight

Chris Gruetzemacher vs Rafa Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Gruetzemacher
Rafa Garcia
33% 67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
15-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gruetzemacher: 100 sig / 0 TD · Garcia: 72 sig / 5 TD
Chris Gruetzemacher
Rafa Garcia
61
Sig strikes landed
57
142
Sig strikes attempted
142
80
Total strikes landed
75
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
57s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Chris Gruetzemacher

"Gritz"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
L1

Rafa Garcia

"Gifted"
19-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
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