Prelims1
Featherweight
Danny Chavez vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danny Chavez
Kai Kamaka III
28%
72%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
11-6-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Chavez: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Kamaka III: 48 sig / 0 TD
Danny Chavez
Kai Kamaka III
50
Sig strikes landed
51
116
Sig strikes attempted
108
63
Total strikes landed
74
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Danny Chavez
"The Colombian Warrior"
11-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
L2
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—