Prelims1
Middleweight
Punahele Soriano vs Brendan Allen
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Punahele Soriano
Brendan Allen
31%
69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
14-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
27-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Soriano: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 94 sig / 0 TD
Punahele Soriano
Brendan Allen
16
Sig strikes landed
29
42
Sig strikes attempted
62
29
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
14-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W1
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—