Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adrian Yanez
Randy Costa
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
7-4
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Yanez: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 69 sig / 0 TD
Adrian Yanez
Randy Costa
37
Sig strikes landed
29
91
Sig strikes attempted
82
37
Total strikes landed
27
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.70
Knockdowns
0.20
47s
Control time
-4s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Adrian Yanez
18-6-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
7-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—