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Main Middleweight

Rodolfo Vieira vs Dustin Stoltzfus

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Rodolfo Vieira
Dustin Stoltzfus
53% 47%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
11-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Vieira: 49 sig / 3 TD · Stoltzfus: 67 sig / 0 TD
Rodolfo Vieira
Dustin Stoltzfus
32
Sig strikes landed
28
59
Sig strikes attempted
55
52
Total strikes landed
43
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
232s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Rodolfo Vieira

11-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
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W UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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Blue corner
L1

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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