Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Mateusz Gamrot
16%
84%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
29-24
Career record
Δ 32 pp
27-4
L4
Current streak
W1
25
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Stephens: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamrot: 1 sig / 1 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Mateusz Gamrot
34
Sig strikes landed
47
76
Sig strikes attempted
106
48
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
77s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
25 fights · 11-13
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—