Main
Women's Bantamweight
Marion Reneau vs Miesha Tate
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marion Reneau
Miesha Tate
25%
75%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
44
Age
Δ 9y
35
9-9-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
20-11
L4
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Reneau: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Tate: 65 sig / 3 TD
Marion Reneau
Miesha Tate
37
Sig strikes landed
49
88
Sig strikes attempted
103
64
Total strikes landed
88
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
9-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
12 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
Blue corner
L2
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
20-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—