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Prelims1 Flyweight

Francisco Figueiredo vs Malcolm Gordon

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Francisco Figueiredo
Malcolm Gordon
74% 26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
14-5-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Figueiredo: 28 sig / 2 TD · Gordon: 46 sig / 2 TD
Francisco Figueiredo
Malcolm Gordon
33
Sig strikes landed
25
72
Sig strikes attempted
58
55
Total strikes landed
52
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.0
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
237s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Francisco Figueiredo

"Sniper"
14-5-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
Blue corner
L2

Malcolm Gordon

"X"
14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…