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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Alan Baudot vs Rodrigo Nascimento

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alan Baudot
Rodrigo Nascimento
37% 63%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
8-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 2
Baudot: 60 sig / 0 TD · Nascimento: 49 sig / 0 TD
Alan Baudot
Rodrigo Nascimento
13
Sig strikes landed
30
30
Sig strikes attempted
60
28
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alan Baudot

"The Black Samourai"
8-4 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
L1

Rodrigo Nascimento

"Ze Colmeia"
11-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—