Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Thiago Moises
89%
11%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
26
29-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
20-10
W7
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Makhachev: 61 sig / 3 TD ·
Moises: 13 sig / 1 TD
Islam Makhachev
Thiago Moises
30
Sig strikes landed
11
60
Sig strikes attempted
52
59
Total strikes landed
25
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
285s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W3
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—