Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Royval
85%
15%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
31-6
Career record
Δ 21 pp
17-10
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pantoja: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Royval: 17 sig / 1 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Royval
42
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
87
53
Total strikes landed
41
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
196s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—