Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Mark Madsen
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
39-22
Career record
Δ 23 pp
13-2
W1
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guida: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Madsen: 98 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Mark Madsen
23
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
77
44
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
13-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—