Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Parker Porter
Chase Sherman
52%
48%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
15-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-13
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Porter: 149 sig / 1 TD ·
Sherman: 117 sig / 0 TD
Parker Porter
Chase Sherman
74
Sig strikes landed
68
126
Sig strikes attempted
158
82
Total strikes landed
79
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Parker Porter
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—