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Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Kelvin Gastelum
52% 48%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
37
Age
Δ 8y
30
18-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-12
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
19

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Cannonier: 81 sig / 0 TD · Gastelum: 89 sig / 0 TD
Jared Cannonier
Kelvin Gastelum
52
Sig strikes landed
52
100
Sig strikes attempted
113
59
Total strikes landed
69
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
31s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jared Cannonier

"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
L1

Kelvin Gastelum

21-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 19 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—