Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dan Hooker
Nasrat Haqparast
50%
50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
24-15
Career record
Δ 14 pp
19-6
L2
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hooker: 73 sig / 3 TD ·
Haqparast: 27 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hooker
Nasrat Haqparast
69
Sig strikes landed
70
152
Sig strikes attempted
143
90
Total strikes landed
81
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
24-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—