Prelims1
Bantamweight
Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Merab Dvalishvili
37%
63%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
33
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
22-5
L2
Current streak
W6
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Moraes: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Dvalishvili: 69 sig / 4 TD
Marlon Moraes
Merab Dvalishvili
35
Sig strikes landed
53
96
Sig strikes attempted
123
46
Total strikes landed
102
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
32s
Control time
223s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W6
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—