Prelims2
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger vs Martin Sano
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
Martin Sano
60%
40%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Semelsberger: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Sano: 1 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
Martin Sano
45
Sig strikes landed
36
99
Sig strikes attempted
85
47
Total strikes landed
47
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
Blue corner
Martin Sano
"Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30