Prelims2
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce vs Omar Morales
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jonathan Pearce
Omar Morales
62%
38%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
29
Age
Δ 6y
36
15-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pearce: 12 sig / 6 TD ·
Morales: 12 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Pearce
Omar Morales
40
Sig strikes landed
37
92
Sig strikes attempted
95
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jonathan Pearce
"JSP"
15-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
W1
Omar Morales
"Venezuelan Fighter"
12-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—