Main
Women's Flyweight
Jessica Andrade vs Cynthia Calvillo
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Andrade
Cynthia Calvillo
79%
21%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
26-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
9-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Andrade: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Calvillo: 27 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Andrade
Cynthia Calvillo
72
Sig strikes landed
56
149
Sig strikes attempted
140
98
Total strikes landed
69
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
178s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
26-16
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
Blue corner
L1
Cynthia Calvillo
9-7-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—