Main
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
74%
26%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
19-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Blaydes: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Rozenstruik: 18 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
40
Sig strikes landed
24
81
Sig strikes attempted
51
69
Total strikes landed
28
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
199s
Control time
10s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—