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Main Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
74% 26%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
19-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Blaydes: 32 sig / 3 TD · Rozenstruik: 18 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
40
Sig strikes landed
24
81
Sig strikes attempted
51
69
Total strikes landed
28
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
199s
Control time
10s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"
19-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
W UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
Blue corner
W1

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
L UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…