Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Robbie Lawler
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 1y
40
26-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
30-17
L2
Current streak
L4
4
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Diaz: 150 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawler: 131 sig / 0 TD
Nick Diaz
Robbie Lawler
110
Sig strikes landed
97
242
Sig strikes attempted
218
126
Total strikes landed
110
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nick Diaz
26-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L4
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—