🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Flyweight
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Valentina Shevchenko
Lauren Murphy
88%
12%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
34
Age
Δ 5y
38
27-4-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-7
W7
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Shevchenko: 98 sig / 3 TD ·
Murphy: 11 sig / 0 TD
Valentina Shevchenko
Lauren Murphy
77
Sig strikes landed
41
147
Sig strikes attempted
117
120
Total strikes landed
71
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
185s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
27-4-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W5
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—