🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Brian Ortega
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
29-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-5
W8
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Volkanovski: 214 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortega: 88 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Brian Ortega
141
Sig strikes landed
73
225
Sig strikes attempted
193
141
Total strikes landed
108
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—