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Prelims1 Lightweight

King Green vs Rafael Fiziev

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane ·Toyota Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
King Green
Rafael Fiziev
69% 31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
35-18-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 143 sig / 0 TD · Fiziev: 104 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Rafael Fiziev
64
Sig strikes landed
55
118
Sig strikes attempted
121
75
Total strikes landed
63
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

King Green

35-18-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
Blue corner
W3

Rafael Fiziev

"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
W UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…