Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Song Yadong
Casey Kenney
73%
27%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
24
Age
Δ 7y
30
23-10-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Yadong: 116 sig / 0 TD ·
Kenney: 78 sig / 1 TD
Song Yadong
Casey Kenney
63
Sig strikes landed
53
151
Sig strikes attempted
135
78
Total strikes landed
72
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
91s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
23-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
L1
Casey Kenney
16-5-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—