Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alonzo Menifield
Ed Herman
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
34
Age
Δ 7y
41
19-6-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-16
W1
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Menifield: 93 sig / 1 TD ·
Herman: 41 sig / 0 TD
Alonzo Menifield
Ed Herman
34
Sig strikes landed
37
65
Sig strikes attempted
63
46
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
19-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
W3
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—