Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne
61%
39%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
36
Age
Δ 3y
38
16-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-9
L4
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kowalkiewicz: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Penne: 12 sig / 1 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne
59
Sig strikes landed
60
126
Sig strikes attempted
146
87
Total strikes landed
87
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
95s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
Blue corner
W1
Jessica Penne
15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—