Back to UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Victoria Leonardo vs Melissa Gatto

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Victoria Leonardo
Melissa Gatto
32% 68%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
32
Age
Δ 6y
25
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Leonardo: 43 sig / 0 TD · Gatto: 70 sig / 1 TD
Victoria Leonardo
Melissa Gatto
31
Sig strikes landed
44
79
Sig strikes attempted
90
50
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Victoria Leonardo

"Fury"
9-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
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Blue corner

Melissa Gatto

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25