Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Johnny Munoz
Jamey Simmons
77%
23%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
12-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
7-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Munoz: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Simmons: 7 sig / 0 TD
Johnny Munoz
Jamey Simmons
46
Sig strikes landed
24
87
Sig strikes attempted
28
78
Total strikes landed
50
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
252s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johnny Munoz
"Kid Kvenbo"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jamey Simmons
"The Afro Samurai"
7-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—