Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill
70%
30%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
16-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-16
W2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 144 sig / 1 TD ·
Hill: 96 sig / 2 TD
Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill
89
Sig strikes landed
87
204
Sig strikes attempted
163
111
Total strikes landed
101
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
Blue corner
W1
Angela Hill
"Overkill"
20-16
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 8-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—