Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Vicente Luque
53%
47%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
21-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
25-12-1
W4
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chiesa: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Luque: 7 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Vicente Luque
32
Sig strikes landed
36
66
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
52
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.3
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
192s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
Blue corner
W3
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—