Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Ode Osbourne
82%
18%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
22-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-9
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kape: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Osbourne: 18 sig / 0 TD
Manel Kape
Ode Osbourne
35
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
88
49
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
106s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
22-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ode Osbourne
"The Jamaican Sensation"
14-9
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—