Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Pedro Munhoz
82%
18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
65"
35
Age
35
33-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-10
W1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 114 sig / 0 TD ·
Munhoz: 75 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Pedro Munhoz
76
Sig strikes landed
76
174
Sig strikes attempted
167
89
Total strikes landed
88
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—